The Results of TOP’s Polling

At the start of the election campaign, I posted a few polls on TOP for the readers to take. It was mostly just for fun, and in no way scientific or anything. It is now time to discuss the results, ahead of the election on Monday. Some of the responses did not surprise me, while other were a bit peculiar.

Question 1: As of today, which political party do you plan to vote for on May 2, 2011?

Conservative: 25%
Liberal: 25%
NDP: 25%
Haven’t made up mind: 19%
Green: 6%
Bloc: 0%
Other 0%

A three way tie for first place. Looks like TOP readers are pretty diverse!

Question 2: Which federal party leader do you feel would do the best job as Prime Minister of Canada?

Stephen Harper: 46%
Jack Layton: 31%
Michael Ignatieff: 15%
Elizabeth May: 8%

Not surprising that Harper and Layton are 1 and 2. Polls have consistently shown this is the trend amongst most Canadians, and TOP readers appear to feel similarly.

Question 3: Which federal party leader do you feel is the most trustworthy?

Jack Layton: 31%
Gilles Duceppe: 23%
Elizabeth May: 23%
Stephen Harper: 15%
Michael Ignatieff: 8%

This one is odd to me. 46% of respondents feel Harper would do the best job as Prime Minister, yet only 15% feel he is the most trustworthy. I would have expected these two questions to mirror one another.

Question 4: Do you currently plan to vote for the same party as you did in the 2008 federal election?

Yes, voting for the same party: 69%
No, a different party: 15%
Did not vote in 2008: 15%

This one was pretty much what I expected, not much movement from 2008.

Question 5: Which federal party leader would you most like to have a beer with?

Gilles Duceppe: 31%
Stephen Harper: 23%
Jack Layton: 23%
Elizabeth May: 15%
Michael Ignatieff: 8%

This is my favourite question, and once again TOP readers surprised me! Gilles Duceppe was the top response. I can only imagine his english would get worse after a few beers. I hope you’re all good at deciphering franglais 😉

Question 6: What is the issue of most relevance to you in this election?

The economy: 50%
Trust/accountability: 42%
Other: 8%
Defence/military: 0%
The environment: 0%
Education: 0%

This seems to be the standard answer for most respondents, and perhaps the reason the Conservatives are doing so well… they have positioned themselves as the best economic choice.

Question 7: Which federal party leader would you like to see gone from politics forever?

Stephen Harper: 54%
Michael Ignatieff: 23%
Gilles Duceppe: 8%
Jack Layton: 8%
Elizabeth May: 8%

Another funny response from another of my favourite questions. Harper leads the poll of who would do the best job as PM, and also the poll of who should be gone from politics forever… hmmm.

Question 8: Do you feel that Canada functions well under minority parliaments?

Yes: 54%
No: 46%

This was pretty much a tie. I was unsure about which way this would go. Seems to me that another minority government would be alright with many respondents.

Question 9: What is your prediction for the outcome of the election on May 2, 2011?

Conservative minority: 85%
Liberal minority: 15%
All other responses got 0%

I wish I could ask this question over again, especially now that Conservative support has increased in many areas, while Liberal support has dropped off in some. I think the option of a Conservative majority would have picked up some more votes, had this been asked today. But a few weeks ago, Conservative minority was clearly the expected outcome, and is still very likely.

Question 10: What do you think voter turnout will be in this election?

45-55%: 50%
below 45%: 25%
55-65%: 17%
65-75%: 8%
above 75%: 0%

I think this one is right on the mark. While I would love to see a turnout of at least 60%, I think 55% would be an acceptable number considering the trend for voter turnout.

Let me know what your thoughts are on the responses. Do any of them surprise you? Do you think any of them would change, if posed to voters today? Always interested to hear your thoughts.


About Chris James

A student of political science at a Canadian University sharing stories of interest on Canadian and American political and social issues.

Posted on April 26, 2011, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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